Newsgroups: sci.space.policy,sci.energy,sci.environment,rec.arts.sf.science
From: burns@latcs2.lat.oz.au (Jonathan Burns)
Subject: _The Millennial Project_ Review (1/5)
X-Nntp-Posting-Host: latcs2.lat.oz.au
Organization: Comp Sci, La Trobe Uni, Australia
Date: Fri, 24 Mar 1995 00:36:18 GMT

---------------------------------------------------------------------
(C) Jonathan Burns
burns@latcs1.lat.oz.au
January-March 1995

The material below is Copyright; it may be copied freely, on
condition that this notice appears together with it.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

The Millennial Project: Colonizing the Galaxy in Eight Easy Steps
Marshall T. Savage
Little, Brown and Company
1994
ISBN 0-316-77165-1 (hc)
ISBN 0-316-77163-5 (hc)

Review for interested newsgroups
--------------------------------

1. Introduction
---------------

This book proposes the colonization of space in stages, beginning
with a terrestrial marine colony project. It focusses on specific
technologies; none of them new, but some of them less well discussed.
The exposition binds them together, to give a convincing appearance
of coherence and practicality. As well as a discussion, the book
is an invitation to participate in an actual effort founded by
the author, apparently in the stage of organization and early
negotiation for resources.

_The Millennial Project_ is 508 pages, nicely produced in trade-
paperback format with diagrams, appendices, index, and a 20 page
bibliography. A centre section contains 16 plates of artist's-
conception paintings. Many quantities are given, a high fraction
quoted from references. There is a brief introduction by Arthur
C. Clarke.

Several things set the book apart from the average. Compared with
other discussions, e.g. T.A.Heppenheimer's _Colonies in Space_,
which explore possibilities, the author's stance is boldly self-
committal. He himself is establishing his Foundation, right now:
do you want to join him? Throughout, Savage shifts between abstract
discussion and the point of view of a cadre of colonists who have
devoted their lives to space access. The attitude is not one of
taking advantage of commercial and scientific demands to get
a few people out there; instead, the colonists are to establish
one multi-billion-dollar enterprise after another in order to
open up the huge settlements they envisage. Rather than riding
an economic wave, they are making one up as they go.

The valiant stance is backed up by an accumulation of aesthetic
novelty, in the scope and openness of the habitats. Like the
changes in visualization from the early spaceship-as-U-boat,
to the grand tori of _2001_, to the O'Neill colony vistas, each
step in technology paints its picture of human opportunity on
a larger canvas. Meanwhile the stream of quantitative argument
suspends disbelief. The total effect is intoxicating. Disbelief
might be suspended until the second or third reading.

2. Synopsis
-----------

The eight easy steps have a chapter each, starting with step 2.
In order:

	2. Aquarius: Self-sufficient marine colonies.
	3. Bifrost: Maglev and laser-launch space access.
	4. Asgard: Biologically self-sufficient bubble-type space habitats.
	5. Avallon: Nation-sized lunar colonies in domed craters.
	6. Elysium: Terraforming of Mars.
	7. Solaria: Occupation of the Solar System.
	8. Galactia: Open-ended propagation at 0.1 c.
	1. Foundation: Organization necessary to begin the above.

Necessarily, the scenario becomes vaguer in the final stages, but
Savage keeps up the excitement to the end, arguing the evolutionary
scope of Dyson-scale human populations, and the desert nature of
the cosmos. It is in 2-4 that the space vision is reworked.
The Foundation chapter needs separate discussion.

The first chapter lays out the design for a floating city-sized
colony, moored to the continental shelf in the Caribbean, based
on ocean thermal gradient energy conversion (OTEC) generators,
and the consequent upwelling of nitrates from below 3000 feet
depth to support large growths of algae.

The Aquarius colony in full flower, is self-sustaining in food,
water, power, and building material, and hosts sea-based industries.
It is highly profitable, due to industry in algal protein, 
mariculture and secondary production, export of fresh water and
energy, and to its having an internal monopoly of life's
necessities. It is nearly self-reproducing, in the sense that
the colony can build another colony from marine resources.

An Aquarius colony is not environmentally neutral, but its net
effect is limited to its immediate area, and is arguably beneficial.
(With a population around 100,000 apiece, such colonies would
not provide much more human living space; but in providing water
and massive quantities of protein, they would permit land use
to be modified in eco-friendly ways.) With a thousand colonies
or so in operation, the tensions of the next doubling in world
population become more negotiable. Starvation is unthinkable;
electrical and fuel energy based on solar heating of the oceans
is abundant.

While this new ecological component expands, it is also making
high profits, which are invested in the next stage. A period
of a generation or so is necessary for R&D to proceed through
construction of the Bifrost launcher to the first Asgard colony.

A 125 mile tunnel is bored under the Serengeti Plain, and
up the slope of Kilimanjaro. A magnetic accelerator is installed,
for passenger or cargo capsules of 14 tonnes, and evacuated.
A capsule may be accelerated to 5-6 km/s. A laser-launch
system at the exit provides the boost to 8-9 km/s orbital speed.
The capsules are delta-winged vehicles designed to withstand 
hypersonic shockwaves and re-entry.

The road to space is now open. The initial cohort of engineers
sets up a construction shack, and proceeds with the construction
of the first Asgard colony. Both lunar and asteroid resources
must be tapped to some degree, at an early stage.

Asgard comprises a double silicone bubble with 2 metres of water
between the layers. It contains 13 smaller bubbles in cuboctohedral
packing, each in turn containing 13 bubbles of apartment size,
about 6.5 m radius, 1100 m^3 volume. (The arrangement can be
nested outward to awesome scale). There is no gravity. The
atmosphere is pure O2 at 3 psi. Food is entirely algae-derived,
using techniques developed in Aquarius; waste is totally oxidized
in supercritical water oxidation furnaces. Power is provided by
solar-powered steam turbines in half-silvered bubbles.

The first Asgard cluster is set up in Clarke orbit. With viability
established, the next step is to exploit the communications
advantage of large directional antennas, capturing a global
cellular-phone market. After a period of perfecting the stability
of the colonies, the Moon and asteroids can be exploited for
resources, and the age of true space colonization begins.

In the following chapters, majestic vistas unfold, with speculations
which have been canvassed in many other books. The treatment most
resembles George Zebrowski's discursive SF novel _Macrolife_ [Ref.2],
especially in the theme of habitats containing the means of
self-reproduction, and recapitulating the change from single-cell
life to much larger organisms with unprecedented powers. I will
not discuss these chapters further.

3. Discussion
-------------

3.1 Aquarius: OTEC Progress and Costs
-------------------------------------

(Thanks to Teresa Hamilton of the First Millennial Foundation
for providing additional information in issues of the half-yearly
newsletter, _First Foundation News!_.)

OTEC has been a modest runner in the renewable-energy stakes
since at least the mid-'70s: less has been heard about it than
most, probably because the scale is too large for small bands
of enthusiasts.

(OTEC was characteristic of what I would like to call the
High Appropriate wave of technological optimism, which ran
from the mid-'60s into the '70s, and disappeared with the
end of the "Oil Crisis" and the entrenchment of a world
recession. The period was notable for concepts of ambitious
scale: giant wind towers and solar collector fields, sea-current
turbines, evacuated maglev rail-tunnels, arcology cities,
fuel crops and more. The United States' ERDA deserves credit for
much of the research on unconventional concepts; but it has
been accepted in later years that progress would be piecemeal,
and grand designs were left for the next century. Savage is
not so timid, though...)

Savage lists 18 direct references on OTEC, mainly papers for U.S. ERDA
and the Ocean Energy Conference series. The state of the art is
represented by these (from the FFN newsletter):

National Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority (NELHA):
A 210 KW open-cycle OTEC is in operation (appears from diagram
to produce 187 KW net electrical). (FFN, June 1994) 

GenOtec has designed a 5 MW shore-based closed-cycle OTEC,
for a proposed resort on St Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, to
cost $32 miliion. "If the resort gets its venture-capital
funding, GenOtec will most likely get theirs." (FFN, Dec. 1994)

"Sea Solar Power is in final design phase of floating OTEC
for delivery to India." This is supposed to be a full 
100 MW (net electrical) plant, installed in a 25,000 ton ship.
Cost: $250 million. (FFN, Dec. 1993. A more detailed decription
was promised for the following issue, but has not appeared.)

I am not sure what to conclude from this. It may be that
NELHA is limited by funding, but at least they are bending
metal. The GenOtec figure sounds plausible, but it sits
awkwardly with the article on NELHA, in which Savage states:
"A barrier to the successful commercialization of closed-cycle
OTEC is the cost of fabricating and deploying the cold water
pipe... As soon as a flexible pipe system is developed, closed
cycle OTEC will be ready for market." My guess is that a
100 MW plant is nowhere close to being built, and that research
to that point will be more costly than Sea Solar Power's 
estimate of $100 million.

As a final point, from an article by Phil Kopitske in FFN,
"... the technology challenge of OTEC is to get the capital
cost of the plant down to $2 million per MW where it can
compete with coal plants. Luckily, small OTECs can make
more money selling fresh water and air-conditioning chill
water than they can on electricity, which makes small plants
economically viable." Note the quoted cost of GenOtec's
plant is $6.4 million per MW. (FFN Dec. 1994)

And this, I think, spotlights the equivocal nature of OTEC
at present. It's a synergy: power and water from one source:
appropriate for an island without either utility. But the
synergy can be devalued piece by piece, if either benefit
can be more cheaply supplied, e.g. by imported natural gas.

But if OTEC can be shown to work at the 100 MW scale, it
is also appropriate, say, for a tropical coastal city with
a rising population, an aging power utility, and a fresh
water supply increasingly required for agriculture and
salinated downstream. A combination we will surely see more
often. Sea Solar Power is proposing an appropriate solution
for India, at least. And if the solution could be proven
for $100 million, that would be a bargain.

3.2 Aquarius: Preliminary Steps
-------------------------------

Aquarius is to be a floating city, with a capital cost of $ 8 billion
at current prices. Nobody solicits credit like that on the first
try; so Savage's proposal for the initial core group of the
Foundation is to start a popular magazine on the lines of _Omni_,
which will explore all these concepts while making some money.
This will support an experimental colony in the Caribbean, something
of an expeditionary camp, in which a social structure can be shaken
down, and the members can get a feel for how much they can live
without. I imagine something like the Iron Age project in Britain,
an archaeologists' attempt to mock up the living conditions of
pre-Roman times. Some cash flow will come from visitors.

On the basis of this experience, a more ambitious settlement is
proposed: a resort in the Seychelles, OTEC-powered, with gardens
planted on one of the coral reefs. The algal-bloom from deep-water
nitrates concept will get its first real trial; a worthwhile
experiment, since the steps from algae to usable soil on a major
scale are unclear as yet.

A sufficiently determined group of people should have a fair
chance of making this work. Whether they can turn it into a
$100 million per annum business is another question. Note
that an OTEC-supported resort is already being considered for
St Croix, and may (it is hinted in FFN) be willing to take
on the Foundation as partners even at this stage. Also that
the Foundation would be in on the ground floor of an industry
with $100 M p.a. potential, per installation, if it proves
out on the basis of present high-risk trials.

There should be plenty on money to be made from adding value
to real estate, whether barren atolls with no fresh water
reserves, or island communities with existing tourist industries.
Let us assume the Foundation are successful, and finally fund
their first Aquarius cluster as planned, in international waters
some 200 miles off the coast of equatorial Africa...


3.3 Aquarius: Algae-based farming
---------------------------------

Aquarius' critical resource will be the artifical upwelling of
nitrates. Mariculture products account for over 75% of the
estimated mature revenue stream of $ 8 billion per year.

Savage makes much of _spirulina_, an algae which will make
very efficient use of the nitrates. In principle, it makes
a terrific human foodstuff: wholly digestible, 65% protein
by weight, loaded with beta-carotene, but also chlorophyll.
You can buy this in health-food shops: it is bright green, and
is reported to me as tasting vile, unless the pigments are
removed. Beta-carotene is highly valuable in itself.

A critical assumption is that natural regions with high fish
production result from nutrient upwelling and algal increase;
and that articial upwellings will likewise become rich in
marine life. 

There is also the phosphorus question. Savage claims that
nitrates are the critical limitation on algal growth, but
from his tables, spirulina looks to be about 30% phosphorus
by weight. The mariculture prospects will be illusory if
there is not enough in solution at depth. (To make matters
more confusing, recent experiments in Antarctic waters
seem to have confirmed that iron is the critical nutrient
for much of the microscopic food chain.)

A more delicate assumption is that one particular algal species,
spirulina, can be multiplied to the exclusion of others. We are
familiar with toxic blooms at sea and inland waterways, resulting
from phosphorus and other nutrients in domestic and agricultural
runoff. There is also the danger of stirring up sediment in
quantity from the seafloor. Marine biology to the present may be
able to predict adverse algal responses; my guess is that the
science is not yet that firm, and that a deep-water 100 MW OTEC
would pay for itself in pure research in the long run. It also
seems that a thorough program to investigate marine food chains
would be a necessary precondition to implementing Aquarius on a 
continental scale: because one cannot tell what possibly critical
link in a chain might be poisoned by radically larger algal
densities. (Human sewage streams already constitute informal
experiments in this area.)

Mariculture is only a moderately large industry at present, although
it provides some countries with up to half their fish. Shortage of
exploitable coastline seems to be the reason. Aquarius would be a
real innovation in the field. Savage foresees areas on the km^2
scale, devoted to salmon, oysters, lobster and other high-value
sealife. Seaweed is to be cultivated as well, for the silk-like
protein algin.

Genetic engineering of algae to produce proteins to order, is
another capability of Aquarius' mariculturists. This is a natural
idea; but I believe it would be barred by existing world agreements.
The analogy is the Green Revolution. Originally, this was a
matter of selective breeding and interbreeding from world-
wide varieties, to produce grains with superior yield, blight
resistance, etc. Only recently have true transgenic varieties
been tested, having genes from very different species. In these
trials, the watchword is that a new variety must be unable to
transfer the new genes to a wild kindred species; a condition
surely impossible to meet with algae. For the sake of argument,
imagine an algae which turns out to produce botulinus toxin,
or the "red tide" palytoxin. Perhaps these are easily avoided;
but any new variety acting adversely on marine food chains would
be bad enough. This is a pity, because providing an industrial-scale
resource for a Third-Stage Green Revolution would be a major world
contribution for Aquarius.

Savage expects mariculture would provide $ 6.2 billion p.a. of
a total $ 8 billion gross revenue. Tourism is to bring in another
$ 1 billion; services, mainly in information technology,
$ 450 million. Hydrogen, magnesium, etc are minor additions.

One more major technology is proposed for Aquarius: formation
of light concrete sheets for its construction, made by depositing
dissolved calcium and magnesium carbonates electrolytically on
steel or magnesium mesh. The references to this are mainly due
to one Wolf Hibertz, who has a number of articles and patents
between 1979-1984. An elegant concept; I can only guess that
it has not been used because of electricity costs. I remember
mention some years ago of a scheme to build artificial reefs
in this way, disposing of scrap steel.

3.4 Aquarius as contributor to global resources
-----------------------------------------------

Early in the book, Savage argues that Aquarius will open up
technologies which will help keep the world from a population
and resources crisis in the coming century. 

1) Food. A mature Aquarius, according to Savage's figures,
can produce 320 tonnes per day of spirulina powder, with the
carotene and chlorophyll removed. One-tenth of a pound of this,
added to a pound of flour, will provide the daily protein
requirement for an adult. Thus the daily production would 
upgrade carbohydrates to sustain 320 * 2240 * 10 = 7.2 million
people, if need be. A thousand Aquarius clusters would feed
the human race.

This is at odds with economics, at least currently. As I write,
the Australian Commonwealth government is at odds with the Clinton
administration, for continuing to sell skim milk to the
Philipines, having assured us that our market there would not
be compromised. Worldwide agriculture would be in chaos if
the world suddenly turned to algae-fortified cornflakes
for its staple. Still, the assurance of sustainability is
welcome; and spirulina powder stores well.

The 7.2 million figure really spells out the inefficiency of
our diets, especially the animal parts and products. Probably,
cheap spirulina would show up as an animal-feed supplement.
Any advance which reduces the need for grazing land, makes more
arable land available; and anything which reduces the need for
arable land, makes more available for other uses - habitation,
recreation, topsoil regeneration, reafforestation, etc. Algae-
farming should count as an extra degree of freedom in the
resources-environment equation.

2) Fresh water. The OTEC open-cycle process produces fresh
water by evaporation at low pressure. Savage estimates the
fresh water production of Aquarius as 175 million gallons per
day. (In the newsletters, he has shifted allegiance to the
closed-cycle process, which also produces fresh water by
condensation.)

Fresh water from the continental shelf would allow equatorial
cities to grow and remain healthy, despite agricultural demands
on river water. It may be that better management of water would
be cheaper than supply; but storage from the monsoon season
through the dry requires large dams. Also, if fresh water could
be pumped inland, it would take pressure off the river systems,
bringing them back toward a natural state of affairs. It seems
to me that river systems are such a critical ecological component,
that the ability to keep them serving their natural functions
would be worth very large amounts of money in the next couple
of generations.

In an attempt to verify these thoughts for the Australian context,
I looked up the CSIRO report, _Greenhouse: Planning for Climate
Change_. Our prospect for the next 30 years is apparently:
increased rainfall in the tropics, erratic or lessened rainfall
in the temperate south; more frequent storms and higher winds;
and more topsoil loss in the southern wheat-growing areas. Almost
every adverse effect in this is due to excessive land clearance.
Reafforestation, not water shortage, is our problem. (We have
major arid regions, true. But it is not just a matter of adding
water. Those regions do not drain to the sea. Add water, and
the underground salts rise, resulting in saline bogs.)
 
Having an Aquarius-sized OTEC system offshore would seem to be
like having your own little cloud, permanently on tap. For
tropical nations with long coastlines, e.g. Indonesia, the
technology might be a real boon.

3) Power. Aquarius is in a position to export 300 megawatts,
as electricity or as hydrogen. At 2 KW per capita, this would
meet the needs of 150,000 people. As mentioned above, an
OTEC scheme for present-day implementation estimates the cost
as $ 6.4 million per megawatt, where coal is $ 2 million.
However, Savage estimates that the mature Aquarius would be
able to generate power for $ 1.5 million. 

If workable, this puts OTEC on the list of power generation
technologies available to city and province size utilities.
The energy source is very diffuse, but seafloor is a little-
used resource. A specialized power plant could use the area
at the same time for wind, solar or wave generation.

Savage writes as if he sees OTEC as a comprehensive solution
to the world's power needs. As an order-of-magnitude estimate
though, 10 billion people * 2 KW = 20 million megawatts, or
the output of 66,666 Aquarii.

4) Carbon sequestration. That CSIRO report models (n.b does
not predict) that global warming will cause a rise in sea-level
of 1 metre over 30 years, due to thermal expansion. Then there
are the weather changes, and as Savage points out, the danger
of water vapour, a greenhouse gas, increasing to the point of
positive feedback. This is largely beyond calculation at present.
However, suppose the worst...

Savage reckons that an Aquarius colony could harvest 600,000
tonnes of carbon per year as algae, and sink it to the seabed.
"With 10,000 marine colonies in operation, a billion tons of
CO2 could be removed from the atmosphere each year. This,
together with the reductions resulting from replacing fossil
fuels, could halt and even reverse the build up of carbon
dioxide."

3.5 Aquarius: environmental hazards
-----------------------------------

Although Savage's model is benign compared to land-based ways
of achieving the same goals, it would have a potential for
danger if used on the supposedly world-saving (10,000 colony)
scale.

OTEC plants continually bring up water from below 3000 metres.
If this depth is near the seabed, sediments will come up too,
with a general increase in turbidity.

More seriously, the colonies are supposed to add 800,000 tonnes
of biomass to the world per year, including nitrogen and phosphorus
which will continue to feed algae as they are recycled through
plankton, fish, humans, etc. The possibility should be watched,
that blooms of inimical wild algae will result.

I have no specific knowledge here, but I note that diebacks on
the Great Barrier Reef are being attributed to turbidity and
over-nutriation, caused by farm water runoff along the coast.

This is no reason not to proceed with Aquarius. Rather, the
opportunities to research algal growth, useful and inimical,
and the effects of seafloor agitation, are benefits which
the colony could sell. 

Another thing to watch will be the effects on higher sea
creatures of Aquarius colonies with their pipes, pumps,
mooring lines, membranes, etc. The analogy is driftnet tuna
fishing, snaring dolphins, turtles, etc. We still have little
solid data on the effects of the noisier modern ocean on
hearing-guided animals; how noisy is an OTEC?

This is to say that some adverse effect might keep these
marine cities from expanding to world scale. But one might
say the same about agriculture. Aquarius would give the world
more options; let the world sort out the least or least costly
of evils.

3.6 Aquarius: Profitability
---------------------------

One problem in evaluating a synergy is, that the proponents
can keep shifting the ground. You say, "We can do this
part cheaper"; and they reply, "But there are all the other
benefits; and since we can re-use the infrastructure, we're
still ahead." Demolition of the total scheme has to be in
detail and cumulative.

Aquarius is a synergy. If you invest in the OTEC for power,
you get the nutrients and the water-condensers as well, so
why not exploit them? And so on round the circle.

Consider the alternatives. There are competitors to ship coal,
and uranium, worldwide. Fresh water can be managed far better
than it is, by the relatively cheap means of planting catchments,
building reservoirs, and investing in modern sewage treatment
and water-recycling plant. Agriculture is so productive that
the question is now competition for markets. 

If suppliers in each of these areas were asked to judge their
optimum single-use technology versus Aquarius, each one would
find the single-use technology cheaper - even though the total
cost of the several decisions were substantially greater than
Aquarius.

I note that the proposed GenOtec startup on St Croix is playing
the water card, for air-conditioning and ice, because it is
not the cheapest electricity solution. If St Croix were not an
island, no deal.

But there is a good reason to foresee the OTEC synergy being
adopted. Equatorial countries with extensive coastlines count
for many of those in which population is rising rapidly, with
tens of millions of births per year between them. Towns are
becoming cities, and cities "megacities". These countries are
floundering in virtual debt-peonage, largely because of the
necessity to provide utilities and industrial infrastructure
for the younger generation. Their situation is urgent, and
they are responding by concerted programs of modernization.
This means that their multi-year decisions on water, power,
roads, communications, housing, etc, tend to overlap, rather
than be initiated several years apart under separate 
administration.

Under these circumstances, a unitary solution to various needs
stands a better chance of appraisal. It could look good as an
investment. A solution whose plant is largely offshore, and
need not involve the disruption of existing habitation and
production, could look even better.

This is to say, that if Aquarius can be made to work at a
modest profit (forgetting the billion-dollar space project),
over a period of say 10 years, it might catch on spectacularly.
The mariculture aspect alone is one that any city will turn into
a market with thousands of jobs. Aquarius' main problem might
be fielding enough staffpower to franchise their technological
expertise; which is all they would really have to offer, since
 all components of Aquarius (saving some important patents) are
 in the public domain. Anyone could have done the OTEC thing,
 years ago. It's just that the World Bank (and who can blame them)
 likes to lend money for proven, off-the-shelf solutions, but
 not for wild-eyed High Appropriate experiments.

 The game is other than Savage would have it, I think. If Aquarius
 worked, in the form he pictures, it would not be left to enjoy
 a monopoly for long. The larger synergy would indeed be
 dismantled, and reassembled by parties content to run it at
 lower profit margins; as public utilities, or as a basis for
 say, oil drilling. Any competitor could flood the world with
 magnesium or beta-carotene, and leave Aquarius with 370 tonnes
 per day of expensive cattle-feed.

 But, Aquarius doesn't need a monopoly; any more than Westinghouse
 needs a monopoly on nuclear power plants. What each needs is
 a proven ability to install the technology, on time, on cost,
 and with sensitivity to local conditions. Inasfar as there are
 only a few companies working on OTEC at present, the original
 Aquarians have a fair chance to become, and remain, the best
 in the business.

 Given that, additional opportunities will arise. For instance,
 the Aquarians will necessarily become superlative marine
 engineers in general, or go bankrupt. They will need to understand
 things like corrosion, wave properties, algal fouling, plumbing,
 and so way on. There will be patents in every problem. 

 Assume it so; and assume the competition. Will Aquarius make
 enough to run their own space project? I have no answer, so
 I'll answer a more modest one. Yes, the opportunities in
 implementing the Aquarian system are (either completely illusory
 or) sufficient to allow them also to break into radically
 different technologies, including tunnel construction, maglev
 transportation, and high-power electron beams.



3.7 Bifrost Technologies
------------------------

The goal is a 125-km evacuated tunnel containing a 10-g magnetic
levitation and accelerator track; rising to 5000-6000 metres above
sea-level, where the vehicles exit to atmosphere at 5 km/s.
A battery of 6 free-electron lasers then accelerates a vehicle
by explosively evaporating water propellant contained in it,
increasing its speed to 8-10 km/s, sufficient for orbit.

In the book there is one of those photos, of a vapour-wreathed
superconducting disc, a few ounces weight, floating over a
group of magnets. Now visualize a superconducting assembly
supporting 150 tons, including its own weight; and the 
homopolar generator needed to generate the field. Now visualize
an 80-mile tunnel lined with such generators every few metres.
That is the electromagnetic transport component of Bifrost.

In the final second, the vehicle covers 5 kilometres; the 
generators are being activated that fast. In this phase,
kinetic energy is being delivered to the vehice at 4 gigawatts.

Coilguns have accelerated small payloads to several kilometers
per second. At another extreme, maglev railways are practical
for trains around the mass of the Bifrost vehicle, travelling
at 200-400 kilometers per hour. Bifrost would be the world's
largest coilgun, delivering 1000 times the power of a maglev
railway.

The energy requirement is estimated as 60,000 kilowatt-hours.
The energy is to be supplied from an Aquarius module (300
megawatt capacity), and stored in six superconducting magnetic
energy storage (SEMS) rings. (Savage calls these "capacitors",
which may mislead some readers.)

For comparison, some figures from the leading article in _IEEE
Plasma Science_, Oct. 1994. In this issue, a variety of high-
power microwave generators are showcased, laboratory models
ranging from kilowatts to megawatts output. But the expectation
is that they can be scaled to 100 megawatts apiece, and will
meet the requirements of the planned 0.5-1 Tev electron-positron
linear collider, which will deliver a short burst of power
peaking at several terawatts. Among the generators are free-
electron laser designs for microwave frequencies.

From an article in _IEEE Spectrum_, 1994, an experimental SEMS
system with 1 gigawatt peak discharge is in the planning stage.

Homopolar generators are a proven way to generate high currents
for short periods, having been used in particle accelerators
for at least 40 years.

This suggests that Bifrost might not be the largest or most
powerful electrical machine of its time. By the time Aquarius
could reach its mature earning potential, the Bifrost technology
might be an engineering project with few unknown factors.

Savage's position, consistent with the rest of the book, is 
"We will build it"; as a pure investment in space colonization.
Aquarius' profitability is supposed to be sufficient, at
$ 4-5 billion per year. This is about one-third of the NASA
budget. 

The Bifrost lasers are to deliver 250 megawatts each. Today's
performance is approaching 10 megawatts (continuous wave). This
contrasts with a few kilowatts for gas lasers of the late '60s.
The limits of free-electron laser technology are hard to predict.
Savage quotes Aviation & Space Week, for a report of 40% efficiency,
and another suggesting that most of the remaining 60% of power
can be recovered. As noted above, microwave FELs with 100 megawatt
output are currently being proposed.

The other major component of Bifrost is the launch vehicle.
This dart-shaped craft has to negotiate the multi-gigawatt
driving field; the shockwave on entry to the atmosphere at
5-6 km altitude; the laser evaporation of the ice propellant
at 900 atmospheres and 10,000 degrees C; and re-entry.

In all, the Bifrost project appears to require believable
advances in technology already demonstrated. The scale is
that of a major aerospace weapons or launch system, or of
a major particle accelerator project: say Apollo, or the
B-2 bomber, or the Superconducting Supercollider. Savage
gives a costing of $ 25 billion. 

3.8 Bifrost: Financial Basis
----------------------------

How plausible is it, that a "nation" of a few million could
come to dispose of so much money, and of such technological
expertise?

The answer depends on timing, and on how successful the Aquarius
experience has proven in establishing a distinct society.

At each step so far, the founding colonists have been faced
with challenges. There are easier ways to make a living, after
all. Whatever the differences among the Aquarians, they have
it in common that the only reason they are going through with
this is to get somebody into space - themselves, their children,
a later generation.

Success breeds success, in terms of credibility, recruitment
and alliances. If the Foundation can make a success of the
resort business, and their first major OTEC works, their
credit will be good for similar projects. It may take a few
contracts, but if they can stay on track, they can afford to
build the first OTEC module for Aquarius; and so on.

Mariculture will be a business before Aquarius construction
begins; the electrolytic magnesium production and CaCO3
deposition techniques will have been tried in small, and
scaled-down floating structures built. The finance can be
developed in stages, as the city rises over 7-10 years.

With Aquarius up, the revenue may take the form Savage
envisages, or not. The marine-engineering techniques will
be ready for exploitation, and the sea-farming can be
expanded to what the market will bear.

Plausible enough, so far. So let's allow that $ 4-5 billion
per year... We have a mini-nation, 100,000 strong, not counting
expatriate supporters, where the Big Science tail wags the
National dog.

The general idea of a modern country is one in which most of
the population are absorbed in earning the necessities of life,
which also earns them the choice of additional goods and services.
Work and leisure occupies much of their time. Education is a
classification system, which most people do not turn directly
toward any vocation. Despite the technical excellence supporting
the consumer products, a modern country need not be intensely
technophilic. Research and development make up a small part of
corporate and government budgets.

Savage would have Aquarius spending 50-60% of the gross domestic
product on research. Aquarius directly supports 100,000 citizens
in food, housing, clothing, transport and information. Once
the colony is constructed, how many are required for maintenance,
farming, merchandising, hospitality, medicine, social services?
Education is up-to-date, and technically oriented to a high degree.

It is really quite a narrow society, rather like an army. Its goals
are clear. It gets things done. If you don't like it, you can leave.
As Savage says, it is a large company store, with little consumer
choice. However, by virtue of that simplification of life, there
are few laws, and government, an ad hoc electronic democracy, can
be municipal in scale. 

Just how Aquarius conducts trade, and how it recruits, are not
much considered in the book. There will be legal questions 
in various countries concerning the taxation status of activities
carried out by their citizens while "abroad". Aquarius will be
located beyond the 200-mile limit; but will it choose to benefit
by franchising the technology for coastal operations?

Above all, how will it develop the high-tech expertise for the
Bifrost stage, stuck out in mid-ocean?

3.9 Aquarius to Bifrost: Economic Alliances
-------------------------------------------

(Here my opinion goes into areas that the book does not. I don't
think it actually contradicts Savage philosophically, but it
may not be what he has in mind.)

As I suggested above, the Aquarius concept is a natural partner
for coastal cities needing power and water. The colonists should
therefore not be shy about making alliances with equatorial
governments; of whom, to some degree, they can take their pick.

Given a sea-grown installation which supplies power and water
to a city, the obvious next step is to bore the conduits. This
would give the marine engineers a necessary initiation in
tunnelling machinery, and a new product line.

Tunnelling can be developed in the same gradual way as
electrolytic sea-construction: start small, make a profitable
thing of it, consolidate experience, then lay down your money
for the big one.

London and New York, to take two examples, are coastal cities
which once benefited from cheap labour, to build underground
railways. For some time, these carried a fairly high percentage
of the commuters, and it still causes disruption when they are
closed down.

Third-world cities are growing rather too fast to benefit in
the same way. It is easier to lay roads. Electric transport
is more expensive, but in the long run more economical in
land-use, as well as hedging against oil price rises.

Here then is a way for the Aquarians to gain experience in
their next two technological specialties, tunnelling and
maglev, singly or in combination as the customer would have
it. It is true that maglev is a relatively expensive kind
of railway system, and more suited to high speed than
short haul. But there is the basis for a genuine partnership,
with employment for local labour, and a market for electric
power, and possibly magnesium or aluminium.

Aquarius has a potential advantage as an investor: it can
wait for its profits, spacing the returns on investments
out along the curve of its financial requirements over ten
or twenty years if necessary. Being based on the Equator, 
it has an interest in local currencies, which can buy
labour in its region.

It is equally important to gain political allies, and
social involvement at many levels of the societies with
which the colonists must deal. Savage's book implies a
somewhat aloof, "We are but guests upon the Earth"
attitude on their behalf; this is part of an ideology of
complete self-sufficiency, motivating import-replacement
at every step. It is valid, in fact I think it is vital.
But so is the acceptance and testing of political
interdependence. The Project dare not lose the Equator.
Therefore they must not be seen as aliens, or as a soft
touch, against whom the Equator can be held hostage.

If on the contrary, they can get themselves seen as partners,
and disseminators of high technology in "the South", then
the eventual prospect of Quito or Kilimanjaro as the road
to space will be more negotiable by far. Nor should the
potential for recruitment be overlooked.

3.10 Research Alliances
-----------------------

The one thing the Foundation absolutely cannot get on without,
at this stage, is brains: the one-in-100,000 kind who can push
gyrotrons to the limit, extract valid aerodynamic data from
shock-tube trials, or get down among electron orbitals to
determine what makes superconduction work.

It is possible that in the process of raising Aquarius, the
Foundation will have recruited the research force necessary.
If not, a surplus of $ 5 billion per year would still allow
them to operate more or less as NASA does. They could endow
scholarships, let out contracts, host conferences, and maintain
a network and library resource; up to the point at which they
could confidently lay out the money for the 10-year Bifrost
construction effort. They could grow their own garden of
externally developed patents, funded on the sole condition that
the Foundation be able to exploit them for their leap into
orbit.

There would be opportunities for further cooperation with the
Equatorial states, which I proposed above would be natural
customers for the Aquarius technology, paying by stages in 
their own currencies; i.e. principally in their own peoples'
labour.

The economic situations of these countries - I am thinking of
Indonesia, India, Mexico, Kenya - are various, and volatile.
Generalizations should not be taken too far. But generally,
these economies are growing; they are hospitable to foreign
investment, in agriculture, manufacture and tourism, but not
so much in local high-tech innovation. They include a rapidly
increasing population of youngsters, for whom it is difficult
to provide stability, more so schooling, and still more so
real economic opportunity. In doing their best to provide
infrastructure and up-to-date capital equipment, these states
have borrowed so heavily, that significant fractions of the
domestic product are committed to repayments; and especially
in the smaller ones, this has come to the point that they
are allowed further credit only on condition of virtual
dictation of economic policy by their creditors, the IMF
or the World Bank.
 
Now consider Aquarius. As a simultaneous solution to
several urgent utility needs, an offshore OTEC platform
offers a lot of bang for the buck. The full Aquarius package
as Savage estimates it, is $ 8 billion, but this is for a
complete self-sustaining model city. The essential structure
appears on Savage's figures to be more like $ 2-3 billion,
of which $ 1.2 billion is for the OTECs themselves.

The Foundation might be able to offer a deal on the order of:
$ 1.5 billion up front, in borrowed foreign currencies, paying
for the OTEC and other components which are cheaper for the
Foundation to buy than to manufacture; plus $ 1.5 billion
payable over ten years, of which $ 1 billion is in the home
currency. With this, the Foundation can buy factory structure
and services, as well as things like metals; and the services
of local engineers and factory workers. After working a few
such deals, the Foundation can get what it really wants,
which is a world-class production system for high-power
electromagnetic and aerospace components. The allied countries
get an engineering elite, owning significant patents of their
own, who can attract new investments in export opportunities.
It is really a matter of focussing talent already present and
partially employed, putting economic demand on universities and
so on, in a way that the more usual investments in semi-skilled
labour do not.

I recognize that this goes against Savage's principle of
maximal independence, from financial entanglement and from
government regulation. I suggest it because it appears to
serve the interests of both sides, because it makes the most
use of resources which Aquarius can generate (from the sea
and from its peoples' experience), because it gains the
Foundation much of the Bifrost structure relatively cheaply;
because it would somewhat further the cause of economic
equality between the North and South ... and because it
might save the Foundation from putting all its political
eggs in one basket.


3.11 Bifrost: Political Dangers
-------------------------------

Some irony may be seen in my posting this section. Savage's
appeal is going primarily to Americans, and if the Foundation
gets going the nucleus of pioneers will be mainly American.
Their patriotism is not to be doubted; and yet years of
discussion in the Internet space groups shows ingrained
dissatisfaction in Americans with their government's space
policies, and considerable distrust for government in itself.

Savage postulates a clean start for the Foundation, asking
nothing from any government. The first-stage colonies will
have their own constitutions, and the colonists will work
out their own social arrangements, taking advantage of
electronic communications: the first net government, or
anarchy or whatever.

In the Aquarius phase, this seems likely to meet with only
minor resistance from the USA. There may be some quarrels
over taxation, citizenship, voting in state and national
elections. But Aquarius itself is an innocuous project,
in international waters; and if the colonists were to deal
with other governments, it would be no more than any trading
corporation.

With Bifrost however, the Foundation will be seeking 
pre-eminence in several of what the USA has to regard as
strategic technologies: aerospace, advanced materials,
communications, high-power microwave and lasers. At some
point, America's military planners will notice that the
Foundation means what it says; roughly, at the same time
it is generally realized that the magnetic-launch idea is
practical.

Given that homopolar generators, SMES, and 100 MW microwave
emitters are practical right now, and being scaled up, it
may be that the next few feasibility studies on coil-gun
propulsion will declare a launch system achievable in short
order. Conceivably, the USA could be inspired to bypass
Aquarius and lay out tens of billions for a launch system
based on Hawaii or Cape York, Australia. Or then, perhaps
not. But if not, how will they regard these upstarts scooping
militarily and economically critical technologies, while
declaring themselves immune to the security and safety 
strictures of the American research labs? (Especially when
the upstarts are talking about building gigawatt lasers in
orbit, and ablatively nudging space debris to re-rentry!)

By implication, Savage is saying that the Foundation will
take on the responsibility for ensuring that orbital
technology is never misused, e.g. for microwaving comsats
into oblivion. Where are the Ballistic Missile Defense
Organization's Brilliant Pebbles then? Would the Foundation
accept them as cargo, for example?

Sooner or later, the matter must be made subject to
international law. The question is, will the Foundation
have taken care that it has a say in nominating the umpire?

Purity of motive might gain the Foundation credibility in
some trading negotiations: the fact of being committed to
the long haul would keep them honest in the short run.
But that wouldn't save them in an argument over aerospace
security with the American defense establishment.

The easiest measure against the Foundation is restriction of
their access to American research. For instance, there was
that tedious period ten years ago, when personal computers
were declared strategically important, and Australian companies
were having to fill out COCOM forms before they could import
Apple Macs.

This is the political argument for the Foundation fostering
independent research bases in the South; and also for winning
support among those governments, against the day when treaties
are signed, or the UN votes, or the World Court weighs up the
pleas.

(Savage says some things in the book which betray economic and
political positions not thought out. For instance, there is
the picture of Aquarius-built airships ferrying spirulina to
famine-struck Third World villages: a band-aid application
which misses both the values and the dangers of cheap protein,
and could be quite offensive to peoples who have been working to
build up their agriculture with modern varieties, with debt,
capital starvation, and consequent poverty as the reward.)

3.12 Bifrost: Operational Costs.
--------------------------------

Very little space in the book is given to the stage between the
building of Bifrost and of the full-blown space colony Asgard.
Unfortunately this elides several interesting issues.

Savage has Bifrost commencing operations as a short track up
Kilimanjaro, cargoes and trained personnel shooting the tube
at 30 gravities.

Before this, the testing period could be quite long. The array
of homopolar generators would seem to need a lot of maintenance.
They must be tested on the "waverider" delta-shaped vehicles in
all configurations of loading, imbalance, partial failure, etc.
If one of the generators stuttered, the following ones would
have to switch instantly to stabilizing and decelerating modes.
The interaction of generator and vehicle through the speed-range,
in the presence of vibration, air leaking into the tube, and so
on, is a new physical phenomenon, which must be checked empirically
against simulations. Also, having got waveriders into orbit, the
art of getting them down again would have to be explored, by
teleguidance presumably, before humans are ready to go up.

Savage specifies a vehicle with a crew of 6, plus up to 25
passengers, or cargo; payload mass 4 tons, payload bay about
8 metres long. I miss any mention of a de-orbiting rocket
system; this would have to be contined in the 5-ton vehicle
structure.

Ideally, Bifrost could launch vehicles at a rate of one each
five minutes. At the point where one or two per day becomes
reliable, they can undertake the deployment of the Valhalla
construction shack. A crew of six could live in and out of
the payload bay for weeks, a la Shuttle. A rendezvous of
several ships in orbit would give plenty of redundancy for
emergency re-entry. A dozen crews could work on the Valhalla
job together.

Compare this with Shuttle-borne operation. Discussions in the
Internet sci.space group a few years back, about the costing
of Space Station Freedom, assumed two or three Shuttles in
service, and very few astronauts on the job. Every EVA hour
counted, and was costed according to the Shuttle launch cost.
Having built Bifrost, at whatever cost, the Foundation is in
a very different economic situation.

Savage has only a line item, "Launch capsules, 0.25 x $ 10^9".
Does this mean, apiece? His entire position hangs on the
vehicle cost.

Other discussions of coilgun or laser-launch systems have
assumed that the vehicles will be cheap, and usually that
they will mass a ton or less. Savage's "waverider" vehicles
as described above, would be engineering marvels.

Savage postulates a launch rate of 3 per hour. If each vehicle
takes a day to return to Bifrost, a fleet of 72 is required;
for a 6 hour round trip, a fleet of 18. If the fleet is to
cost only $ 250 million, that is $ 3.4 - 13.6 million apiece.
I find it hard to believe that such a high-performance craft
could be built so cheaply; also, Savage proposes that the
30,000 C shockwave temperature is to be handled by an ablating
layer on the craft. Re-surfacing and other maintenance must
be added to the round-trip time.

Alternatively, a fleet of 72 at $ 0.25 billion each, is
$ 18 billion; to be compared with Savage's $ 25 billion
for Bifrost as a whole.

Operating costs are assumed to be about the same as the
capital costs, over 30 years of operation; i.e. $ 0.83
billion per year. 

$ 50 G / 4 kg G = $ 12.5 

A launch rate of 3 per hour, times 5 tons per launch,
gives 360 tons per day, 131450 per year, or about 
4 million over 30 years. Cost per kilogram is given
as $ 15 - 20, which accords with $ 50 billion / 4 billion
kg = $ 12.5 / kg. If the vehicle costs were an extra
$ 30 billion, we would get $ 20 / kg.

Now even $ 100 / kg, or $ 100,000 / ton, would open radically
new space markets. Communications satellites could be launched
in hundreds; private endeavours in materials processing would
be affordable.

Rather than destroy the market for rocket launchers, Bifrost
would seem to open a new one, in lightweight rockets or 
components massing a couple of tons, with delta-v of a few
km/s. Asteroid prospecting would be immediately practical,
although extraction and processing would need larger-scale,
possibly crewed installations.

In particular, the Moon is in reach for life-support cabins
or additional Valhalla bubbles propelled by lightweight
rockets. Moon-base and mass-driver components can be landed
and assembled, and in a couple of years a flow of materials
Earthward can commence from the Moon. Earth-orbit-crossing
asteroids are to be mined for kerogen, a kind of tar; this
being the most accessible source of carbon and hydrogen.

3.13 Valhalla to Aquarius: Profitablity
---------------------------------------

Valhalla is the bootstrap by which the fully-fledged Asgard
bubble-cluster raises itself. In this scenario, it should
be remembered, the Aquarians and associates have had a 
generation to design and test components. It is a matter of
scaling up the initial bubble and eliminating faults on the
spot.

Savage considers communications to be Asgard's major service,
taking advantage of large microwave reflectors with very
precise Earth-surface resolution, to dominate the personal
phone market. I find it hard to believe that the market
could be taken from other communications companies, unless
the Aquarians are able to beat them consistently to patents,
along with all their other activities.

However, as with Aquarius, the terrestrial benefits of the
synergy should be noted. (These are commonplaces of the
perennial debate on the value of space; but to some
extent, they have seemed less worthy of discussion as the
O'Neill space colony vision of the '70s receded. I think
they are always worth another look, whenever the period
discussed covers the first half of the 21st century.)

1. Biotechnology. In space, the "third green revolution",
recombinant genetics in algae, bacteria and fungi, can
proceed without danger of contamination. Only the non-living
end products need emerge from the cultivation vessels, after
irradiation to kill the remaining cells. The same could be
done on Earth; but space distances and solar radiation make
for a very effective quarantine barrier.

2. Electric power. Solar power satellite proposals have tended
to founder on launch costs and on the bulk of radiators,
conversion and transmission systems, etc. The first kind of
objection is presumably wiped out by Bifrost's capacity, 
hundreds of kilotons per year. Current advances in microwave
generation make a dent in the second kind. Seen in isolation,
SPS was not a good reason for space transport; in Savage's
picture (as in O'Neill's) it is part of a synergy: if we
make the effort at all, we get high-power microwave beaming
thrown in.

(Savage's power unit is a 200 meter bubble generating 17 MW(e).
100 of these make 1 GW(e), if transmission and reconversion
efficiency is 60%.)

As mentioned above, OTEC can take up a reasonable projected
demand for power, a few kilowatts for each of 10 billion
people, with tens of thousands of plants each turning over
gigaliters of sea-water per day - and possibly liberating
imprudent quantities of nitrates. However, an Aquarius platform
at any latitude would make an excellent base for a microwave
rectenna array, receiving periodically from power satellites
in off-equator orbits, and storing it in SMES or as hydrogen.

As a secondary scenario, radioisotopes from terrestrial nuclear
power generation could be shipped up Bifrost in hundred-kilogram
lots, which could never be supported at Shuttle costs.

3. Transportation. One major reason for this increased 
electrical supply is, that we will be wanting to shift most
transport to some kind of methane-hydrogen-electrical
economy over the next couple of generations. Growing cities
will need more substantial electric-rail systems than we
now expect, and more traffic in liquid natural gas.

Space-to-vehicle microwave transmission is also a possibility.
Health and communications issues may present impassable snags,
but technical feasibility at present does not seem to be in
doubt. With moderately large transmitting antennas, a microwave
beam can track a target a meter across. Small helicopters have
been driven in microwave beam experiments as far back as the
'60s; lighter-than-air cargo vessels would seem to be appropriate
applications. Whether electric motors have the power-to-weight
ratios for something like a present-day passenger aircraft is
another matter.

To see how far this can be taken, see _The Future of Flight_, by
Dean Ing and Leik Myrabo [Ref. 3], where it is proposed that mighty
aircraft and SSTOs be powered by gigawatt laser beams from
above the atmosphere. The Millennial Foundation ought to make
it a priority, to have Baen Books re-publish this visionary
classic.

To step back to space applications, two kinds of light
interplanetary ship would be available to Valhalla at a
fairly early stage. One is their standard solar-collector
"power bubble", 17 MW(e) at 35% efficiency, employed
as a solar thermal rocket (50 MW) using Lunar oxygen as
propellant. For higher power, a laser could track a target
that size for thousands of miles. Once they can set up a
laser system in orbit (not forgetting the radiators), an
Earth-to-orbit vehicle could be reloaded with ice and
kicked off at 4-5 km/s.



3.14 Asgard and Beyond
----------------------
 
Beyond this point, Savage's argument merges with O'Neill's
space-colony scenario. O'Neill started his investigation by
asking his students, "Is the Earth's surface the right place
for an expanding industrial civilization (think big now)?"
The scheme required Space Shuttle costs to be much lower than
they turned out to be. In the context of Savage's arguments,
the whole scheme is ripe for reappraisal, from the initial 
question on.

Much of _The Millennial Project_ remains without comment here.
Readers familiar with the perennial space debate will be
surprised and maybe skeptical at the proposal for zero-gravity,
oxygen-atmosphere spheres, rather than traditional tori or
O'Neill syle cylinders. Neither is there any discussion of
tethers, or nuclear fission. I don't fault the treatment for
this; it would be impossible to compare many competing options
while keeping the clarity of the proposal. It is sufficient
that Savage presents one option which, if it works at all,
works as a self-replicating unit for interplanetary colonization.

In Savage's own terms, I note one gap in the integrity of the
total project: the relatively small capacity of the Bifrost
system. Ultimately, the book comes out with some tens of
billions of humans living on Earth, trillions in space; and
connecting them, a few launch systems capable of a few million
people per year.


3.14 Conclusions
----------------

_The Millennial Project_ issues a challenge to everyone who
sees space colonization as a rewarding policy for the 21st
century. It is possible, says, Savage, to bypass the present
dependency on government for launch-system research. Further,
it is possible to bypass some of the implications of the
rocket equation, and go straight to a system which can be
extended to several million tons to orbit per year.

For myself, the more important challenge is the Aquarius
concept. This could be proven starting immediately, by
undertaking a few researches, each valuable in its own
right. These are: (1) OTEC applicability on the large scale;
(2) controlled algal blooming using deep-sea nutrients;
(3) marine construction by electrolytic deposition from
seawater. 

Should Aquarius prove practical, it would meet one of the
pressing needs of the present time: a utility structure
suitable for rapidly-growing tropical coastal cities, which
can be produced from abundant natural resources, and which
is powered from a still-abundant naturally replenished energy
source.

All the alternatives have costs, potentially severe:
overuse of natural fresh water supplies; import costs for
fuels; committal of valuable land areas to energy generation;
facilities for securing and reclaiming radioisotopes in
quantity. Failing to meet these costs implies failures of
the system; succeeding in meeting them implies decades more
of economically impeding indebtedness.

For these reasons, Savage's proposal ought to be considered
by people with expertise in the relevant fields. His 
Foundation would pay handsomely, if it only succeeded in
mounting the conferences and publishing the findings, on
the critical Aquarius technologies. 

The Aquarius agenda offers hope to environmental, developmental,
libertarian and pro-space constituencies. There always was
potential for alliance among these, for developing cleaner
high-tech solutions in food, water, energy and transport;
but the solutions so often were too expensive, that the
debates foundered, and the futile confrontations of the '60s
and '70s re-emerged. _The Millennial Project_ is the welcome
return of the High Appropriate technological vision, this time
claiming not only a cleaner, more hopeful Earth, but an open
road to space.

4. Personal Postscript
----------------------

Any discussion of space has to play against the backdrop of
21st century prospects. Is civilization about to hit the limits,
or will we coast through on innovations financed by higher
prices and more effective research? There is a general craving
for solid figures, and if we can't get those, we will probably
quote flaky ones anyway.

I presume that the probability of achieving any given figure
is a function of how many tickets we buy in technological
lotteries. At present it's a buyer's market in labour, and
a seller's market in intellect; unequalizing as that is, it
does reward the educated, which continues to feed research.

I also think, sadly, that the price of the research tickets
will increase, while the winnings will be increasingly taxed.
The environmental impact statements will grow longer; the
number of parties disadvantaged by innovation but protected
by law will grow larger. Individuals will be jealous of 
diminished choice, regions of their natural resources.
It will become harder to implement technologies on the large
scale. (Nothing could be more innocuous, at first glance,
than the personal computer; still, Silicon Valley was a
public health scandal for a number of years; for example.)

It is no longer enough to find a new way to accomplish a
task. We have to find ways that are sustainable, clean,
and economical. Research is a critical environmental good.

I think the emergence of new technophile initiatives such as
the Millennial Foundation would be a good thing. I think
it would be a good thing for the nations of the South to
become research leaders as soon as possible. Finally, I
think it will be a very good thing when, inevitably, we
set up in space, and can vigorously carry out research in
such areas as radical biotechnology, nanotech, and high-
energy materials processing, without infringing anyone's
health or rights.

Final note. In a section of this review which I've edited
out, I wrote about Savage's envisaged Millennial Colonists:
"There has never been a nation quite like them; or a business,
or a religion." 

Which made me wonder if that was true. I thought about it;
and shortly thereafter, took a week away from the review,
reading the history of the pre-WW2 Zionist settlements in
Palestine. I found myself intoxicated with admiration, and
appalled at the unforeseen inevitable tragedy. It also left
me in no doubt that what Savage proposes is possible - if he
can find men and women of the same stuff.

4. References
-------------

%T The Millennial Project
%S Colonizing the Galaxy in Eight Easy Steps
%A Marshall T. Savage
%I Little, Brown and Company
%D 1994
%G ISBN 0-316-77165-1 (hc)
%G ISBN 0-316-77163-5 (pb)

%T Macrolife
%A George Zebrowski
%I Futura Publications Ltd
%C Great Britain
%D 1980
%G ISBN 0-7088-8060-0

%T The Future of Flight
%A Leik Myrabo and Dean Ing.
%D 1985
%I Baen Enterprises
%C New York, N.Y. 10018
%G ISBN: 0-671-55941-9

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